By Anwaar Hussain
3/19/07
Truth Spring
Today, I received a shocking email from the respected Doctor Gideon Polya regarding the death toll in Iraq as of March 2007. Before I publish the contents of that email, here is a brief introduction to the venerated doctor.
Dr Gideon Polya has published some 130 works in a 4 decade scientific career, most recently a huge pharmacological reference text “Biochemical Targets of Plant Bioactive Compounds” (Taylor & Francis, New York & London, 2003), and is currently editing a completed book on global avoidable mortality (numerous articles on this matter can be found by a simple Google search for “Gideon Polya” and on his websites: http://globalavoidablemortality.blogspot.com/ , http://gpolya.newsvine.com/ and http://mwcnews.net/content/view/1375/247/ ).
As a radical alternative to dispassionate scientific analysis on behalf of humanity, he has painted some huge paintings demanding respect for Woman and Mother and Child: Sydney Madonna: http://mwcnews.net/content/view/10865/26/ , Manhattan Madonna:
http://mwcnews.net/content/view/10766/26/ , Truelove:
http://mwcnews.net/content/view/11031/254/ and Qana:
http://mwcnews.net/content/view/9547/26/ .
And here is his email. Please spread far and wide as requested.
Dear Anwaar,
Below is a carefully researched and documented letter being sent to global media on the occasion of the 4 th anniversary of the Invasion of Iraq and about post-invasion excess deaths in Occupied Iraq that now total 1 million. Please inform everyone.
Yours sincerely,
Gideon Polya
Dear Sir/Madam,
Four years after the illegal US-UK-Australian invasion of Iraq, how many Iraqis have died post-invasion?
Post-invasion Occupied Iraqi excess deaths (avoidable deaths, deaths that did not have to happen) now total ONE MILLION as of March 2007, after 4 years of war and as estimated from data from the top US medical epidemiology group in the World’s top Public Health School (the Nobel Laureate-containing Bloomberg School of Public Health) at the top US Johns Hopkins University, published peer-reviewed in the top UK medical journal The Lancet and endorsed by 27 top Australian medical experts. [1-3]
Consonant with post-invasion excess deaths in the Occupied Iraqi and Afghan Territories totalling 1.0 million and 2.4 million, respectively, the post-invasion under-5 year old infant deaths total 0.5 million and 1.9 million, respectively; the number of refugees total 3.8 million and 3.8 million, respectively; and, according to WHO, the annual per capita medical expenditures permitted by the Occupiers are $64 and $23, respectively, as compared to $2,874 (Australia), $2,389 (UK) and $5,711 (US). [4-10]
The accrual cost (i.e. the long-term committed cost) of the Bush Iraq and Afghan Wars is now $2.5 TRILLION, this estimate coming from 2001 Economics Nobel Laureate and former Chief Economist of the World Bank US Professor Stiglitz (Columbia) and Professor Linda Bilmes (Harvard), who also estimate a cost of $6.5 million for each US soldier killed. Assuming the “all men are created equal” this leads to a Reparations Bill of $ 6.5 million x 3.4 million = $22 trillion. [11 -12]
These horrendous outcomes indicate gross violation by the US Alliance of the Geneva Convention Relative to the Protection of Civilian Persons in Time of War (notably Articles 38, 55 and 56), UN Genocide Convention (specifically Article 2) as well as of the UN Charter, the Universal Declaration of Human Rights and the Rights of the Child Convention. Peace is the only way but silence kills and silence is complicity. We are inescapably obliged to inform everyone about horrendous abuses of humanity. [13-16]
Yours sincerely,
Dr Gideon Polya
Melbourne, Australia
Key references:
[1] http://www.thelancet.com/webfiles/images/journals/lancet/s0140673606694919.pdf
[2] http://www.theage.com.au/news/opinion/the-iraq-deaths-study-was-valid-and-correct/2006/10/20/1160851135985.html
[3] http://mwcnews.net/content/view/12904/42/
[4] http://esa.un.org/unpp/
[5] http://www.unicef.org/index.php
[6] http://www.guardian.co.uk/Iraq/Story/0,,1986147,00.html
[7] http://www.unhcr.org/cgi-bin/texis/vtx/country?iso=afg
[8] http://www.who.int/en/
[9] http://mwcnews.net/content/view/11968/42/
[10] http://mwcnews.net/content/view/12741/42/
[11] http://www.newstatesman.com/200703120024
[12] http://mwcnews.net/content/view/13099/42/
[13] http://www1.umn.edu/humanrts/instree/y4gcpcp.htm
[14] http://www.preventgenocide.org/law/convention/text.htm
[15] http://gpolya.newsvine.com/
[16] http://mwcnews.net/content/view/1375/247/
3/19/07
Truth Spring
Today, I received a shocking email from the respected Doctor Gideon Polya regarding the death toll in Iraq as of March 2007. Before I publish the contents of that email, here is a brief introduction to the venerated doctor.
Dr Gideon Polya has published some 130 works in a 4 decade scientific career, most recently a huge pharmacological reference text “Biochemical Targets of Plant Bioactive Compounds” (Taylor & Francis, New York & London, 2003), and is currently editing a completed book on global avoidable mortality (numerous articles on this matter can be found by a simple Google search for “Gideon Polya” and on his websites: http://globalavoidablemortality.blogspot.com/ , http://gpolya.newsvine.com/ and http://mwcnews.net/content/view/1375/247/ ).
As a radical alternative to dispassionate scientific analysis on behalf of humanity, he has painted some huge paintings demanding respect for Woman and Mother and Child: Sydney Madonna: http://mwcnews.net/content/view/10865/26/ , Manhattan Madonna:
http://mwcnews.net/content/view/10766/26/ , Truelove:
http://mwcnews.net/content/view/11031/254/ and Qana:
http://mwcnews.net/content/view/9547/26/ .
And here is his email. Please spread far and wide as requested.
Dear Anwaar,
Below is a carefully researched and documented letter being sent to global media on the occasion of the 4 th anniversary of the Invasion of Iraq and about post-invasion excess deaths in Occupied Iraq that now total 1 million. Please inform everyone.
Yours sincerely,
Gideon Polya
Dear Sir/Madam,
Four years after the illegal US-UK-Australian invasion of Iraq, how many Iraqis have died post-invasion?
Post-invasion Occupied Iraqi excess deaths (avoidable deaths, deaths that did not have to happen) now total ONE MILLION as of March 2007, after 4 years of war and as estimated from data from the top US medical epidemiology group in the World’s top Public Health School (the Nobel Laureate-containing Bloomberg School of Public Health) at the top US Johns Hopkins University, published peer-reviewed in the top UK medical journal The Lancet and endorsed by 27 top Australian medical experts. [1-3]
Consonant with post-invasion excess deaths in the Occupied Iraqi and Afghan Territories totalling 1.0 million and 2.4 million, respectively, the post-invasion under-5 year old infant deaths total 0.5 million and 1.9 million, respectively; the number of refugees total 3.8 million and 3.8 million, respectively; and, according to WHO, the annual per capita medical expenditures permitted by the Occupiers are $64 and $23, respectively, as compared to $2,874 (Australia), $2,389 (UK) and $5,711 (US). [4-10]
The accrual cost (i.e. the long-term committed cost) of the Bush Iraq and Afghan Wars is now $2.5 TRILLION, this estimate coming from 2001 Economics Nobel Laureate and former Chief Economist of the World Bank US Professor Stiglitz (Columbia) and Professor Linda Bilmes (Harvard), who also estimate a cost of $6.5 million for each US soldier killed. Assuming the “all men are created equal” this leads to a Reparations Bill of $ 6.5 million x 3.4 million = $22 trillion. [11 -12]
These horrendous outcomes indicate gross violation by the US Alliance of the Geneva Convention Relative to the Protection of Civilian Persons in Time of War (notably Articles 38, 55 and 56), UN Genocide Convention (specifically Article 2) as well as of the UN Charter, the Universal Declaration of Human Rights and the Rights of the Child Convention. Peace is the only way but silence kills and silence is complicity. We are inescapably obliged to inform everyone about horrendous abuses of humanity. [13-16]
Yours sincerely,
Dr Gideon Polya
Melbourne, Australia
Key references:
[1] http://www.thelancet.com/webfiles/images/journals/lancet/s0140673606694919.pdf
[2] http://www.theage.com.au/news/opinion/the-iraq-deaths-study-was-valid-and-correct/2006/10/20/1160851135985.html
[3] http://mwcnews.net/content/view/12904/42/
[4] http://esa.un.org/unpp/
[5] http://www.unicef.org/index.php
[6] http://www.guardian.co.uk/Iraq/Story/0,,1986147,00.html
[7] http://www.unhcr.org/cgi-bin/texis/vtx/country?iso=afg
[8] http://www.who.int/en/
[9] http://mwcnews.net/content/view/11968/42/
[10] http://mwcnews.net/content/view/12741/42/
[11] http://www.newstatesman.com/200703120024
[12] http://mwcnews.net/content/view/13099/42/
[13] http://www1.umn.edu/humanrts/instree/y4gcpcp.htm
[14] http://www.preventgenocide.org/law/convention/text.htm
[15] http://gpolya.newsvine.com/
[16] http://mwcnews.net/content/view/1375/247/
32 comments:
I and my family have dreams that come true. I have kept records of them for 18 years. On March 12th, 2003 I had a small dream in the morning, that: there was a conversation going on between voices that if Bush went into Iraq 1,000,000 people would die.’ Upon awakening I could not understand how this would be, unless it meant a war with Iran too. But now I see that it was fulfilled in Iraq alone.
In the early morning of March 16th, 2003 I had this dream:
I was standing with 3 Iraqi young men dressed as civilians. They seemed nervous because we – men and some American generals - were somehow preventing them from going forth. Then I told the Iraqis that they could go back to Iraq to defend it. They climbed into a square container portal device, and as they left I said seriously, “Be sure and don’t kill a lot of innocent people,” and then I turned to climb in a huge garbage bin – like a Dempster Dumpster, and as I did my voice turned sarcastic and I continued saying: “…because we sure as heck are going to!” And I was laughing lightly toward the other men – the 3 generals - and I was somehow knowingly staring at them in a mocking manner as I climbed in on top of dusty stacks of plywood boards that filled the lower 33% of the dumpster. The 3 generals seemed a little upset that I had given the Iraqis permission to return to Iraq to defend their nation. I woke up. I believed and told my family that the 3 Iraqis = 3 days.
On the 17th Bush gave Saddam and his sons 48 hours to leave Iraq. On the 19 the war was on.
As Jim Eagle Feather I had once posted many things on Iraq.net forum. It was a Shiite INC site and I learned a great deal about Muslims and Iraqis from 1997 until late 2002. I knew that these people had horrible hatreds for one another, that made the racism of the old US south look like child’s play. I knew many of the Iraqis on this site, both Shia and Sunni were headed back to Iraq. I had warned them often about what would really happen since 1998 – cause they were always begging the USA to invade. One last told me, “Mr. Eagle Feather, soon you will be able to come visit us in a new Iraq. I will show you the many archaeological sights in our country.”
I'd like to see some figures on this rather than just that short note and a list of references. I haven't looked but I know none of them will say 1 million dead. I have been estimating the number of dead due to the war in Iraq at about 1 million for about the last 4 or 5 months, however I am not limiting this only to so-called "excess deaths" by which I assume what is meant is that the deaths are only counted if they represent things getting worse than the already genocidal levels that took place in Iraq immidiately prior to the invasion of Iraq due to the US embargo on humanitarian supplies.
Ironically the "excess deaths" formula actually means that the more Iraqis America was killing before the invasion the better they look post invasion, becuase literally you have to subtract the pre-invasion death toll which was called "genocidal" (by a UN official in Iraq who resigned).
So without these deaths subtracted it's not hard to reach a 1 million death toll figure.
The two Lancet published studies record an increased death rate from the first studdy, over 18 months I think, of 100,000 to the second, covering 40 months, of 650,000. Subtracting the difference the two studies together suggest an estimated death toll of 550,000 over the 22 months prior to the second study's completion (that was about 8 months ago). That's 25,000 dead a month over the last two and a half years if we assume no increase in violence recently, another 200,000 dead since the end of the period of the second study for a total of 850,000 dead simply due to extrapolating the published figures, which were of course, measuring only "excess deaths".
The rate of the pre-invasion deaths over what could be considered "normal" is much more difficult to gauge although at it's height I think the UN estimated something like 10,000 a month, but holes in the embargo had begun to appear and generally it wasn't as bad I believe, by the time of the invasion.
I beleive the first Lancet published report was low-balled to gain acceptance; in particular figures from Faloojeh were removed from the count and their inclusion would have doubled the estimated death toll. This would make the toll over the first 18 months much closer to the next 22 months and would decrease the estimate above from 850,000 (25K a month) to more like 810,000.
Consonant with post-invasion excess deaths in the Occupied Iraqi and Afghan Territories totalling 1.0 million and 2.4 million, respectively, the post-invasion under-5 year old infant deaths total 0.5 million and 1.9 million, respectively
This remark makes it sound as if the infant mortality rate is being used to calculate excess deaths which doesn't make much sense. Afghanistan in particular has always had a terrible time of it over the last few decades. these deaths are not so clearly the fault of the US as with Iraq and the US embargo of humanitarian supplies for over a decade. Unlike Iraq, Afghanistan has never been a wealthy nation (in modern history that is).
Re= DavidByron
I suggest you review some recent documents by Lancet, UN, etc..
There are few other articles by same author which you can find it here with references to the credible sources
http://mwcnews.net/Gideon-Polya
Regards Shahram Vahdany
Oaxaca, Mexico, Wednesday 21 March 2007
Friends,
I believe it is a mistake to spend too much energy trying to pin down with precision and then arguing about the numbers of persons killed. Even if the numbers were very small compared to what they actually are, the brutal unconcern of the conquerors is (or should be) unacceptable to any humane person.
Here in southern Mexico a popular struggle has been going on actively since May 2006. The number of persons killed by the Oaxaca State and Mexican Federal governments is miniscule compared to fatalities caused by the U.S. and its co-conqueror nation-states in other parts of the world, but the governments' efforts to traumatize and terrorize the civilian population into absolute submission is just as despicable. How many people are killed, disappeared, imprisoned, tortured, mutilated, threatened with attacks on their family members is a matter of strategy and tactics, not compassion or regard for human lives.
My belief is that we do better to focus our energies on the basic problems, getting rid of the entire value system that sustains capitalism, worldwide, and, those of us who are privileged intellectuals and others of the middle classes, doing our utmost to engage as actively as we can in the on-the-ground struggles of the world's vast majority of ordinary, impoverished peoples.
The more arcane our studies are, even though we aim them to contribute to the struggle for a better world, the less relevant we are to our unprivileged fellow human beings.
Sincerely,
George
george.salzman (at) umb.edu
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